Major Super Bowl Preview Part 1

Major Super Bowl Preview - Part I

(Editor’s note: This is Part I of Carter “The Power” Bryant’s breakdown of Super Bowl XLIV. Check back for Part II later and the finale on Friday as he tries to figure out who will hoist the Lombardi Trophy on Feb. 7.)

The Saints are in the Super Bowl.

Wow.

Now that’s a first. I can’t believe I just said that. How can something that seems so farfetched be one of the few true statements I’ve said in regarding this year’s NFL post-season?

My 4-6 record in picking playoff games thus far sheds dark light on my performance in last year’s playoffs. To go along with my preseason prediction of the Steelers winning the Super Bowl, I went 8-3 in picking games with all of my losses due to the brilliance of Kurt Warner (who sadly retired last Friday).

But to get back to the Super Bowl, the game between the New Orleans Saints and Indianapolis Colts is going to be bombarded with storylines. Including:

The best quarterback in the NFC versus the best in the AFC. Defenses that hold no regards for human existence. Teams who scared Mercury Morris half to death late into the regular season. And, best of all, a struggle between pro-life and pro-choice activists over a commercial that involves Tim Tebow, who seems to never get any attention from the national media.

All three phases of football needs to be in tip-top form when two even teams meet in the Super Bowl. But since the Colts and Saints are evenly matched in all categories, I believe these three factors will determine who wins Super Bowl XLIV.

1. Distribution

In the modern era of professional football, teams that can make explosive plays down field wins football games. With the league now being driven by quarterbacks, it comes to no surprise that Peyton Manning and Drew Brees are the quarterbacks who are playing for the Super Bowl.

But with the Colts and Saints defenses playing their safeties in Deep Cover-2 for most of their games this season, it will be tough to complete big throws down the field. Defensive coordinators Gregg Williams and Larry Coyer do a great job of mixing up coverages underneath because of the athletic linebackers both teams possess.

To combat deep coverages and pre-snap defensive movements, Manning and Brees will have to distribute the football to many different players to be affective on offensive.

Colts

The Colts had to deal with the best cornerback in the NFL in Jets’ shutdown specialist Darrelle Revis in the AFC Championship Game, who had previously shut down every receiver he has faced in this season. Colts Pro Bowl wideout Reggie Wayne was held for only 33 yards in their first meeting.

With young and inexperienced receivers at the number two and three options, offensive coordinator Tom Moore and Manning decided to start the game off in two tight-end sets. With the Jets dominating the first and most of the second quarter, the Colts decided to make a switch in the game plan. The changes the Colts had to make involved Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon in position to make plays at the other receiver positions.

After the switch, Manning led the team with one of his patented two-minute drives at the tail end of the second quarter. Collie picked up all 80 yards on the drive on three catches, including a 16-yard strike for a touchdown.

(Side Note: Manning is the most lethal quarterback in the NFL with less than two minutes remaining. In the Colts three biggest wins this season (Patriots, Ravens, Jets), the four-time MVP led his team down the field to score before the end of the half or game. Belichick remembers.)

Collie and Garcon ended up having career days in their victory against the Jets, with both receivers going over 120 yards and scoring a touchdown apiece. This is important, because even though they survived “Revis Island”, they will still have their hands full with a talented Saints secondary.

As I wrote in my NFC Championship breakdown, Saints quarterback Jabari Greer was the second most efficient corner according to Football Outsiders. Greer had a big day against Sidney Rice, who in the previous week put together one of the best playoff receiving performances in NFL history against the Dallas Cowboys.

That sucks for you again Reggie Wayne.

Manning will also not see the #11 and #85 jerseys as clear as they were against the Jets’ Dwight Lowery and Lito Sheppard. Saints cornerback Tracy Porter is better than both of those players and also made big plays, including one REALLY BIG PLAY, in the NFC Championship Game.

But nothing seems to stop Manning in big games nowadays.

The Saints have struggled in stopping slot receivers, so Collie could have another big game. But look for tight end Dallas Clark to make some noise on offense. Clark has been relatively quiet this postseason and can really cause matchup problems for defenses.

Saints

New Orleans Saints head coach Sean Payton and Brees should feel relatively lucky they won their last football game.

I really have a tough time believing Payton intentionally called the game conservatively against the Vikings because that was in his game plan. He is not that stupid. He wouldn’t have just wanted to play field position. He lost to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with than kind of mindset.

IF THE SAINTS WOULD HAVE LOST IN THE NFC CHAMPIONSHIP, EVERYBODY WOULD BE QUESTIONING SEAN PAYTON’S PLAY CALLING.

Calling two running plays to begin the overtime period with all of the momentum in the world on your side? Come on now Sean. You might be a team of destiny, but don’t rely on it like Les Miles did in ‘07.

I know Vikings defensive ends Jared Allen and Ray Edwards are bulls on the outside, but that doesn’t mean taking the football out of your best player’s hands in the most important game in Saints history!!!

But in Payton’s defense, Brees wasn’t himself in that football game either despite his 197 yards and three touchdowns. After the first couple of drives, he was shaky for the rest of the game. He threw numerous passes that looked more like broken records than spirals, fumbled a snap from center deep in his own territory and didn’t seem comfortable in the pocket all night.

The Saints did have had many contributions from many different players in the victory against the Vikings. But did it not seem like the Saints were in their usual flow in that game? The Vikings dominated that game because Brees wasn’t consistently spreading the ball around like he had been all season.

The Saints skilled position players have got to play better. Outside of running back Pierre Thomas, the Saints skilled position players seemed really tense. That can’t afford to happen against the Colts.

Though Saints wide receiver Marques Colston is known league wide as the Saints best offensive target for Brees, “Who Dat Nation” realizes this offense is unstoppable when numerous black and gold offensive weapons are involved.

If the Saints win the Super Bowl, the rest of the country will recognize the Saints as the “Greatest Show on Turf” since the Warner/Faulk/Holt St. Louis Rams.